The big one is here, and that means the end of the NFL season. Super Bowl LVIII arrives on Sunday with the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs meeting in Las Vegas, and we’ll have five picks below for the festivities. After all, that is what we do in this space for the last eight (!) seasons, and it’s been another profitable year on the whole. Championship Weekend was quite kind to us with a 4-1 mark, clinching a winning season overall, but we’re not done yet.
As always, we’d encourage you to stay within yourself and treat this one like (almost) a normal game, but before we tackle the five official plays, let’s take stock of the 2023-24 season.
Championship Weekend: 4-1
2023 Season: 55-41-4
Come get these winners.
Travis Kelce OVER 70.5 receiving yards — PointsBet
I am rarely as square as this play feels. But I do think it’s the right side. Kelce is on a 12-game streak of at least 70 yards in playoff action and, while he isn’t the same player athletically that he once was, Patrick Mahomes is peppering him (and Rashee Rice) with targets. San Francisco’s linebackers are tough to navigate, but Kelce will be a huge part of the game plan.
Christian McCaffrey UNDER 90.5 rushing yards — Widely Available
I’m already not enjoying this one, but sometimes we must stand on principle. The Chiefs haven’t given up a 90-yard rusher in a million playoff games (all numbers approximate), and McCaffrey has fallen short of this mark in three of the last four. I wouldn’t touch his scrimmage yards because I think McCaffrey will be a big part of the passing game, but all signs point to this number being at least a touch inflated.
Brock Purdy OVER 0.5 interceptions — BetMGM
Simply put, Purdy has been fortunate with turnover-worthy plays that have not become turnovers this season. Under the bright lights, Purdy should give the Chiefs a couple of chances, and I think they come up with one.
Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers UNDER 47.5 points — Widely Available
The Chiefs are 14-6 to the Under this season. I’m not saying that because I’m a big “trends guy,” because I’m not. But also I don’t think the market has caught up with Kansas City’s defense and, to some extent, Kansas City’s offense. As I’ll say again below, this isn’t a number that would be screaming at me under normal circumstances, but it’s the side I’d play if I have to pick it. And, hey, I do.
Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) over San Francisco 49ers — FanDuel
If this was a game in Week 6, I probably wouldn’t give out the Chiefs at this number on a neutral field. I get why the number is what it is, and I don’t think it’s “wrong,” but if you’re making me pick the game, I’m taking Kansas City. It’s not as simple as Mahomes vs. Purdy, but that is an enticing tiebreaker. Mahomes is absurd as an underdog with a 10-1-1 career record against the spread, and while I don’t believe Purdy is the caricature that some have painted, I also don’t think he’s an elite player. I think the Chiefs should be able to get pressure up front. They’ll get enough from Kelce, Rice, and Pacheco. If it was pick’em, I’m not sure what I’d do, but the extra candy makes it an easier choice.